He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Find UFOs, The Apocalypse, New World Order, Political Analysis, Alternative Health, Armageddon, Conspiracies, Prophecies, Spirituality, Home Schooling, Home Mortgages and more, in: Rumor Mill News Reading Room, Current Archive Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. A lot of people think things are. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Im looking at both sides of it. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. By Cara Ding. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Logistically, its a disaster. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. Farming also is huge here. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. He loves this country. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Blaine County. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. And we just want that to continue. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. I think all politicians are crooks. Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. Theyre scared. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. This includes personalizing content and advertising. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. He considers Trump pro-life. Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. Its crazy. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Jim Hoft. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. Jacobs said she absolutely intends to vote in person on Nov. 3. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. Medicare is becoming a joke. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! I find that hard to believe. Thus it would appear that bellwether. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. That is a very good thing to have. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. The morale of the people up there is bad. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. We need election reform.. Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. And its never going to come back.. We need creative leadership, Miller said. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. I would never vote any other way. Theres too much mishandling, she said. He says Democratic Gov. He says hell vote for Trump. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. I just want Trump in. But thats not the picture I look at. Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. But according to the. Were a service industry-oriented area. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. Two states have announced recounts. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said.
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